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Wednesday, 20 August 2008
 
 

Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

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Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

When leaders are embroiled in or affected by major conflicts-whether wars or labor-management disputes-they naturally look to the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. A colleague of mine, Dr. Kesten Green, and I tested this practice by comparing the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The short answer is hat experts cannot provide useful forecasts for complex situations involving high uncertainty.
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